On Experts

The book “Thinking, Fast And Slow” by Daniel Kahneman is an endless well of insights on the human mind.

It explores many topics, highly relevant to the all of us. I will leave you with one of the insights, that I have come across today.

“For a number of years, professors at Duke University conducted a survey in which the chief financial officers of large corporations estimated the returns of the Standard & Poor’s index over the following year. The Duke scholars collected 11,600 such forecasts and examined their accuracy. The conclusion was straightforward: financial officers of large corporations had no clue about the short term future of the stock market; the correlation between their estimates and the true value was slightly less than zero! When they said the market would go down, it was slightly more likely than not that it would go up.”